Going into this weekend’s final games of the first round, each team has played 6 games – and with Atlético Ottawa’s massive last minute win against Pacific FC, the playoff race is wide open. Only 4 points separate first and seventh. Edmonton is the only team that is out of playoff consideration, with their 8th seeding already determined. The rest of the teams have a chance to make it. Tiebreaker scenarios were outlined by the league on Friday:
Before I get into the playoff scenarios for each team, let me remind you of the standings and this weekend’s match-ups.
Standings (Sept. 4, 2020):
| # | Team | W | D | L | GF | GC | GD | Points |
| 1 | Forge FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 11 |
| 2 | Cavalry FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 3 | York9 FC | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 |
| 4 | HFX Wanderers FC | 2 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 9 |
| 5 | Atlético Ottawa | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 8 |
| 6 | Pacific FC | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 8 |
| 7 | Valour FC | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Edmonton FC | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 1 |
Final Match-ups:
| Time | Match-up |
| Saturday, Sept 5 – 12PM ET | Forge vs. Valour |
| Saturday, Sept 5 – 3PM ET | Cavalry vs. York9 |
| Sunday, Sept 6 – 12PM ET | HFX Wanderers vs. Atlético Ottawa |
| Sunday, Sept 6 – 3PM | Pacific vs. Edmonton |
Playoff Clinching Scenarios:
4 or 5 Team Tiebreaker:
There is a scenario where Cavalry, York9, Ottawa, and Pacific could all finish with 11 points. By rule, the first tiebreaker is if there are multiple teams with the same amount of points, the accumulated points in games played between the tied teams would have the advantage. In this case, Ottawa owns the first tiebreaker as they would have the most points in games played between the 4 teams (with 7). Pacific would come next (4 points), then York9 (4 points), and then Cavalry (1 points). If Forge finishes with 11 points, they would own the tiebreaker as they have beaten all these teams, except York9, giving them the most accumulated points.
Forge FC:
- A win will clinch first in the tournament heading into round 2.
- A draw will clinch a top 4 spot, but could finish as low as third if the Cavalry-York9 match finishes as a 2-2 draw. York9 is the only team to have beaten Cavalry, so the nine stripes would own the first tiebreaker.
Cavalry FC:
- A win will clinch a second place finish. It could also mean a first place finish if Forge lose to Valour.
- A draw could see them miss out on the top 4 if both Pacific and Ottawa win their matches since both teams beat Cavalry earlier in the season.
- A draw could also have them miss the playoffs if Halifax beats Ottawa instead since they would surpass Cavalry on points; Pacific would still have to win.
- A loss would force them to miss the playoffs if Pacific and Ottawa or Halifax win, as they would surpass Cavalry on points.
York9 FC:
- A win will clinch a second place finish. It could also mean a first place finish if Forge lose to Valour.
- A draw could see them miss out on the top 4 if both Pacific and Ottawa win their matches.
- A draw could also have them miss the playoffs if Halifax beats Ottawa instead since they would surpass Cavalry on points; Pacific would still have to win and beat York on goal differential.
- A loss would force them to miss the playoffs if Pacific and Ottawa or Halifax win, as they would surpass Cavalry on points.
Atlético Ottawa:
- Win and they’re in. With a win against Halifax, Ottawa would leapfrog the Wanderers for 4th place. Where they land will depend on the scenarios outlined above.
Pacific FC:
- A win would clinch a playoff spot if Ottawa and Halifax draw or if one of Cavalry or York9 lose. Positioning will depend on scenarios outlined above.
Valour FC:
- Win – score a ton, hope everyone else loses and doesn’t score a ton, and maybe, just maybe, they’ll make it!
Summary:
Those are the playoff scenarios. They are a little complicated, but complicated tiebreakers heading into the final weekend make for an exciting finish. If you are an Ottawa fan, a win will quiet a lot of the pundits. But let’s be honest, they will still say we didn’t deserve it!
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